Emmy Prediction: Comedy Lead Actor

With previous winners, Bill Hader and Donald Glover absent from this year's ceremony because Atlanta and Barry didn't meet the eligibility requirement, a new actor is going to accept the gold this year whether virtually or in person. Returning nominees include Eugene Levy (Schitt's Creek), Ted Danson (The Good Place), Anthony Anderson (Black-ish), Don Cheadle (Black Monday), Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method) and Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm). This category is a very strange one this year as it is incredibly open and could surely have someone unexpected breakthrough against all odds and surprise just about everyone. The obvious pick to me for the winner this year is Eugene Levy for Schitt's Creek because the buzz for Schitt's Creek is too massive to ignore this year and if the voters love the show that much, there is a giant possibility that not only Levy could take home the award, but Catherine O'Hara could prevail for lead actress and the show for comedy series, becoming the first time a single show has swept all three categories since 30 Rock years ago. Levy's performance might be a bit more held back than Catherine O'Hara but he is also an Emmy veteran (previous winner-not for acting) that voters are familiar with and enjoy not only checking off their ballot but selecting as their winner. He would definitely be more of the obvious or safe choice for this category especially in one as wide open as this one, and with Schitt's Creek increasing in popularity with voters, it seems incredibly likely that he will surely be nominated again, but could easily take home the award. The hardest part to me was breaking through and earning a nomination which the show and Levy surprisingly managed to do last year against most predictions, therefore it is close to assured that he will receive a follow-up nomination this year especially as it is the last season of the beloved show. 

However, it won't be the easiest path for Levy to win as new competitors are consistently rising up and growing in popularity with voters. Ted Danson from The Good Place has been nominated twice before for the same role and has won several Emmys and been nominated for even more, making him an even bigger award darling than Levy and a very strong contender. He is probably another lock-in nominee this year for the last season of The Good Place and could upset Levy for the award but the last season of Schitt's Creek sort of overshadowed the buzz for The Good Place and was later in April compared to the earlier finale of the former show, therefore, I still think that the hype for Schitt's Creek could and likely will push Levy and in my prediction, O'Hara and the show to major wins against Danson and The Good Place. But, I would never underestimate the underdogs, especially in these acting categories as the Golden Globe winner from this year, Ramy Youssef, is back after the frustrating snub from last year for the acclaimed second season of Ramy and easily could become this year's Fleabag if there is enough love and buzz for the show which might seem unlikely now but anything could happen from now to September. The hardest part for Ramy overall is getting nominated this year as it needs to breakthrough as the newcomer show and if it happens to do so with some of the major nominations, it could easily prove a lot more powerful than any of us think for the Emmys in September and could especially push Youssef past Levy. "Ramy's" second season has gotten off to a slower than expected start and has not generated as much buzz as some other shows but if enough voters watch it and love it (which they instantly will if they watch it), it definitely could have enough support to gain multiple nominations across the board. 

Anthony Anderson is returning this year for yet another season of Black-ish and even though the show has lost some steam (I still think it could return this year in the comedy category), Anderson seems like the nomination the voters would hold onto even after voters have gotten over it in other categories and also Anderson gives another hilarious and outstanding performance that deserves another nomination even if it might be the final one. He surely is in a weaker position this year, however, it's not much different from last year where he surprised by getting in the category again, therefore, it makes perfect sense for him to continue earning the nomination until voters eventually drop him which I predict will most likely not be this year. Larry David has consistently earned a nomination for almost every season of Curb Your Enthusiasm and while I personally wouldn't agree with every voter, it seems too unusual they would drop him from their rosters this year as another acclaimed season (with a very well-liked performance) aired on HBO and is likely to get major award notice. However, I can see a possible situation where Curb Your Enthusiasm gets dropped as voters might be too used to it and desire something new and unusual especially given the recent victories in the comedy categories but this category continues to honor veteran actors like Michael Douglas or Larry David so it is against the normal for the academy to do so. In addition, Don Cheadle was a bit of a surprise last year given that Black Monday didn't do as well in other categories and if he was able to break through last year, I find it hard to see him getting snubbed this year as he seems to always have the support of the actors and has significantly become more popular this year and well-known. Therefore, I would assume he repeats his nomination again this year even if Black Monday gets snubbed in almost every category because his support seems undeniable given these previous years and he has been nominated for other programs many times at the Emmys so voters are very familiar with him unlike the younger actors trying to break into this category. 

Given that there will be six assured nominees in this category (the Emmys have new rules based on the number of submissions), one major contender will get snubbed and only because I don't see The Kominsky Method doing well overall at the Emmys this year (because of last year's snubs), I predict that Michael Douglas will get dropped this year despite being nominated last year only because even though the acting branch still provide a lot of support for the show, the acting hasn't really changed in the show and I feel like people will want to move on past the typical performances and honor more unique showcases instead of the more typical Douglas. But, Douglas is a favorite to voters and well-known and could prove me wrong especially if the support for The Kominsky Method grows but for me, it just seems like the Emmys are done with the show and might just drop it entirely including the strong acting. Similarly, Paul Rudd got the Golden Globe nomination and earned some buzz for playing two people on the Netflix show Living With Yourself and while I truly admire his performance and find it one of the best of the year given the difficulty of the role, the show isn't well-known to voters and not many people have watched the comedy series so it is highly likely his performance will go unnoticed but he did get in the Golden Globe competitive category over some I am predicting here so definitely don't count him out completely. Plus, Paul Rudd is liked by actors and is overall hilarious and fantastic in almost everything he does, so he could easily get in just by his rising popularity especially with the actors. 

Space Force and Run are interesting cases for this year's Emmys as both had so much hype before they released and after they premiered, critics gave them both mixed reviews and although some audiences adored them, they were severely mixed and not as spectacular as many expected or hoped. Space Force especially lost a lot of momentum given the poor reviews from critics, however, Steve Carell is very popular and has been nominated before and even if voters don't enjoy his performance in Space Force, the popular name and popularity for a variety of other shows could get his name checked off many ballots and towards a nomination. I personally can't see Steve Carell getting in this category as it seems more likely he would get in for The Morning Show in Drama, but nothing is impossible and I have been proven wrong several times as the Emmys are unpredictable especially in the comedy categories. In similar fashion, Domhnall Gleeson from Run was heavily depending on the popularity and critics love for Run and since that was absent from the show (especially towards the ending of Run), I don't think he has enough power or momentum to earn a nomination on his own and would need some major love for Run itself unlike Merritt Wever who is a popular name among voters and could be the sole nomination for Run. It's entirely possible for him to breakthrough if Run gets in comedy and Merritt Wever gets into the actress but without those key nominations, I don't see him breaking in since he wasn't the standout performance of the show. But once again, anything could happen on the 28th morning and major upsets and surprises could happen as they always do which could go in favor of Gleeson. 

Other possible nominees to look out for that aren't as strong but could breakthrough (remember Schitt's Creek was completely unexpected last year) include the famous and respected Ricky Geravis for Netflix's After Life. After Life has been wildly ignored by Emmys despite many predicting Geravis for the last season, therefore, while it would be tough to get Geravis in since he's already been ignored, more and more voters are discovering new shows on Netflix while being stuck in their house and that could easily include the latest season of After Life which has been gaining slight momentum so it is entirely possible that we see some more love for the show and maybe even enough to get Geravis in this wide-open category. Also, The Politician's second season aired recently on Netflix and even though the first season is the one actually submitted (was nominated for Golden Globes), the popularity and love for the second season could work in its favor to not only gain a comedy series nomination but also get Ben Platt in. He was nominated for Golden Globes but I think to get him in this category, the show would also have to be nominated for the comedy series category which seems sort of unlikely considering that the second season didn't generate as much hype it would need to get voters attention. However, Ben Platt is fantastic in it and maybe some voters took notice of it even though this category traditionally honors veteran actors instead of the new and younger actors but once again, Emmy voters might be looking for something completely different and fresh this year which greatly benefits Platt. 

Brooklyn Nine-Nine has shockingly been snubbed for its past seasons in the major categories at the Emmys and while it would be difficult to change that as it is following a partial path similar to Modern Family, Andy Samberg is popular with voters and fans and if voters are stuck at home, they could be binge-watching Brooklyn Nine-Nine and end up loving it, therefore, putting Samberg on the ballot with them and continuing to honor his magnificent work. Another show that has slowly gone up from the earlier season is the new show entitled Dave and the star actor Dave Burd. It's an interesting show that would certainly be fresh for Emmy voters and provide something new like Fleabag last year, however, it really hasn't generated as much buzz as some other shows but has surely been growing and gaining popularity slowly and if it gains that much love quick enough, it could hop its way to multiple nominations. The most likely nomination to me seems to be the star Dave Burd for the show and if voters love this unique and different performance enough, they might abandon their traditional ways and put him along with the other amazing actors they select especially with how open this category is. Similarly, Will and Grace's new seasons haven't been exactly the Emmys' favorite like expected but since this is the final season, I definitely see a scenario similar to what I think with Modern Family to where there is so much love for the show to honor it one last time like Schitt's Creek or The Good Place that could push it up and even get Eric McCormack finally in for the show's new season. It would be a difficult journey considering the fact that it has been mostly ignored in the top categories and also that NBC is pushing The Good Place and Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist more instead but even if the show is snubbed, the actors could get in as a major surprise as a last attempt to honor them for their stellar work. 

Sex Education is also a popular show and now that it is in comedy, Asa Butterfield does have a decent shot to break into this open category for lead actor similar to Avenue 5's Hugh Laurie which HBO is desperately pushing. These two could easily break in since we have never seen them in these categories (Sex Education was submitted under drama last year and Avenue 5 is a new show) which would only make it even more exciting if they get in but it would have to be a massive breakthrough and requires a huge push to really get the attention of the Emmy voters but I can surely see it if they are popular and campaigned enough which Sex Education and Avenue 5 has gained recently even if it might not be enough. Then there are the older returning nominees including William H. Macy from Shameless and Silicon Valley's Thomas Middleditch which really don't have that much hype or buzz as their shows have sort of been forgotten from Emmy voters (we'll see about Silicon Valley) but they've gotten in multiple times before and there really is no reason they shouldn't be honored by some voters again, it's just that some people are looking for something new and different and would prefer not to revert back to Macy and Middleditch but especially for Middleditch ane Silicon Valley, it might be the best way for the academy to wish the beloved Silicon Valley a farewell for its final season. Macy, on the other hand, would be more difficult to get in this category but don't underestimate the love for him from voters as even though Shameless isn't as good as before, the voters certainly could continue to embrace it and Macy's unique role.

 Finally, the closer to long-shots for me are Tracy Morgan from The Last O.G. and Jim Carrey for Kidding (the latter nominated for Golden Globe for its first season but snubbed at Emmys last year). I really would love to see Tracy Morgan breakthrough and earn a surprise nomination in this wide-open category especially since The Last O.G. is an amazing show but it continues to be ignored and seems unlikely to be honored now but once again I bring Schitt's Creek into the conversation and even though The Last O.G. doesn't have that sort of hype, it might have enough to get Morgan in this category and only increase from there to come back even stronger next year similar to what happened to Schitt's Creek. Jim Carrey gives a hilarious performance in Kidding which definitely isn't usual for Emmy voters and therefore was snubbed last year despite a Golden Globe nomination but if the Emmy voters are drifting far away enough from their normal performances honored, Carrey could sneak in there and earn this nomination even when Kidding is likely to be ignored especially as the actor's popularity with the acting branch has grown massively and could attract a variety of voters. It seems extremely unlikely for him to break through this year since he was ignored last year and the second season wasn't claimed to be any better than the last, however, this category is truly wide-open and anything could happen including some new and returning faces from all of these varying, unique yet spectacular actors. 

 

My Predicted Nominees:

1. Eugene Levy (Schitt's Creek)

2. Ted Danson (The Good Place)

3. Ramy Youssef (Ramy) 

4. Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)

5. Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

6. Don Cheadle (Black Monday) 

Strong Competitors:

Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)

Paul Rudd (Living With Yourself)

Steve Carell (Space Force) 

Domhnall Gleeson (Run)

Possible Nominees:

Ricky Geravis (After Life)

Ben Platt (The Politician)

Andy Samberg (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)

Dave Burd (Dave)

Eric McCormack (Will and Grace)

Asa Butterfield (Sex Education)

Hugh Laurie (Avenue 5)

William H. Macy (Shameless)

Thomas Middleditch (Silicon Valley)

Tracy Morgan (The Last O.G.)

Jim Carrey (Kidding)